The seven-quarter run of record-breaking merger activity among registered investment advisors is in jeopardy. New data from DeVoe & Company, presented at its 2026 M&A+ Succession Summit in Huntington Beach, California, on September 24, shows only 72 RIA transactions were announced through September 22—a 19% drop from the 89 deals recorded in the same period last year.
If that pace continues, 2026 will fall short of last year's total, snapping one of the longest consolidation streaks in the industry's history. The slowdown marks a sharp reversal from the year's strong opening: the first quarter produced 93 deals, matching the all-time quarterly high and running 24% above the prior year. Activity then slipped to 74 in the second quarter before contracting further in the third.
Why the pullback happened
David DeVoe, founder and CEO of DeVoe & Company, attributes the deceleration to decisions—or non-decisions—made six to eighteen months earlier, when a series of economic and geopolitical shocks reshaped the environment for potential sellers. "The transactions announced on a given day are the result of a decision to sell, which came 6 to 18 months ago," he said. "The volatility and distraction created by tariffs, the war with Iran, gasoline price surges and other economic shocks over the last 18 months caused some advisors to pause before moving forward with a sale. That hesitation is now emerging in our transaction data."
The lag is structural. A professionally managed sale process typically takes about six months from engagement to announcement; advisors who go without an investment banker often take 12 to 18 months. Thus, announced deal counts serve as a trailing indicator of seller sentiment, not a real-time snapshot. The timeline aligns with two distinct stress periods: the CBOE Volatility Index spiked after tariff announcements in April 2025, reaching levels not seen since the onset of COVID-19, and a second wave followed the US-Iran conflict in March 2026.
"During periods of volatility, advisors appropriately turn their attention to clients," DeVoe said. "Major strategic decisions move down the priority list. RIA owners have not abandoned their plans to sell. They simply delayed the timing."
Broader deal environment
The third-quarter contraction contrasts with the first half of 2026, which saw record-breaking activity. Berkshire Global Advisors reported deal count nearly 40% higher than the prior year, while Echelon Partners counted 262 transactions in the first half, up from 220 in 2025. Acquired RIA assets nearly doubled, according to Fidelity's midyear report, with total client assets involved jumping 88% to $343 billion. The median size of acquired RIAs rose from $517 million to $630 million in assets under management, reflecting a shift toward larger deals.
Private equity remains the dominant buyer, accounting for approximately 85% of strategic acquisitions in the first half of 2026, per Berkshire. That trend is consistent with recent years, as PE's footprint in the RIA space continues to expand. For context, PE fundraising hit a record $312 billion in H1 2026, though exits lagged—a dynamic that could influence future deal flow.
Near-term outlook
Despite the third-quarter weakness, DeVoe & Company stopped short of declaring a structural shift. The firm cites a pipeline of more than 15 transactions expected to close within six months as evidence that underlying deal flow remains intact. "The market did not lose its long-term momentum, it likely experienced a pause in the formation of new transactions," DeVoe said. "Although September is on track to be an extremely weak month, we expect activity to accelerate over the next several months and quarters."
Structural forces support that view: an aging advisor population with unresolved succession issues, continued buyer appetite for quality firms, and the competitive advantages of scale in a consolidating market. As the industry evolves, private market allocations hit a record amid rising AI concentration worries, and retirement balances reached record highs in Q2 2026—both factors that could influence advisor strategies. For now, the pause appears temporary, but the record streak remains at risk.
