New research from Visa Business and Economic Insights is recalibrating the widely cited $100 trillion-plus Great Wealth Transfer forecast, suggesting the actual sum moving between generations may be significantly smaller. The study, which excludes the top 1% of households, projects that approximately $36 trillion of baby boomers' $93 trillion in assets will pass to Gen X and millennial heirs over the next two decades. That figure, while still enormous—equivalent to roughly $515,000 per inheriting household—represents a sharp reduction from earlier estimates by Cerulli Associates, which had projected $124 trillion in total transfers through 2048.
To put the revised number in context, $36 trillion exceeds the entire U.S. gross domestic product, which the International Monetary Fund pegged at $32.38 trillion as of April 2026. Yet the Visa research underscores that the bulk of this wealth will not fuel consumer spending. Nearly 75% of inheritance recipients already have a net worth above the median, meaning $28 trillion of the $36 trillion is likely to be saved, invested, or channeled into assets such as real estate. That leaves only $8 trillion for actual consumption, including big-ticket purchases like automobiles, housing down payments, and multigenerational travel.
“For businesses in big-ticket sectors like housing and travel, this is not a future trend to watch,” said Wayne Best, chief economist at Visa, in a statement. “It is already influencing consumer decisions—and shaping where growth will be distributed in the years ahead.” The findings align with other recent industry reports, including a Bank of America survey that found wealthy families are increasingly moving assets into private markets and family firms ahead of the transfer.
The Visa study also highlights a shift in timing: more families are transferring wealth earlier, while the givers can still witness its impact. One in four millennial homeowners have already received parental assistance with a down payment, and 28% of grandparents have taken a so-called skip-generation vacation with grandchildren, with another 35% planning to do so within three years. This pattern suggests that the traditional estate-planning timeline—where transfers occur at death—is giving way to lifetime gifting strategies.
For financial advisors, the implications are twofold. First, wealth is moving earlier than conventional planning assumes, meaning advisors must initiate conversations about transfer timing and lifetime gifting sooner. Second, because most inherited assets will be reinvested rather than spent, the competition for those dollars will intensify among wealth managers, banks, and fintech firms. A separate analysis has argued that an endowment-model investment approach can help advisors retain assets during this transition.
The Visa research arrives amid a flurry of wealth-transfer forecasts. UBS’s Golden Next Generation 2026 report, released in April 2026, estimates $83 trillion in private assets will shift between generations over the next two to three decades. Cerulli Associates, in its 2024 projection, had placed the total at $124 trillion through 2048, with nearly $100 trillion coming from baby boomers and older cohorts. The divergence in estimates reflects differing methodologies, particularly around how liabilities, taxes, fees, and charitable bequests are accounted for.
Advisors who wait for a transfer event to introduce themselves to the next generation risk losing those assets to competitors. The Visa data reinforces the value of building multigenerational relationships now, a theme echoed in a recent report on why heirs leave their parents' advisors and how firms can retain them. In practical terms, this means discussing estate plans, gifting strategies, and investment philosophies with both the current and future owners of the wealth.
While the $36 trillion figure is a downward revision from the most optimistic projections, it still represents a historic opportunity. The key for advisors will be to engage heirs early, understand their preferences—which may include sustainable investing, digital tools, and alternative assets—and position their practices to serve two generations simultaneously. Those that do will be better placed to capture a share of the $28 trillion expected to flow into savings and investments over the next 20 years.
