The RIA merger-and-acquisition market has been on a record-setting streak for nearly four years, but two investment bankers who work on these deals daily caution that the run is built on borrowed time. Ryan Kaminski and Christopher Gent, co-founders of Green Sail Capital Partners, argue that the multiples fueling today's consolidation wave are supported by a financial arbitrage that cannot persist indefinitely. The implication: sellers who delay could forfeit significant value.
"We think at some point, probably towards the end of the decade, there's going to be a couple of events that are going to result in a decline in these record multiples," Kaminski told InvestmentNews. The market remains active, with new entrants and private equity interest still strong as of 2026, but the underlying dynamics are shifting.
The typical PE playbook involves building a platform company that acquires smaller firms. This model is being deployed by Carson Group, backed by Bain Capital, and Wealth Enhancement, which is reportedly the subject of a bidding war between Bain and Carlyle. New entrants are eager to replicate this formula, sustaining aggressive bidding even as fundamentals change.
At the core of Green Sail's thesis is "multiple arbitrage." Buyers trading at roughly 20 times EBITDA in private markets are willing to pay top dollar for acquisitions, hoping to capture a spread. "Everybody is thinking 'We're trading at 20 times EBITDA, we'll buy for 12. And that's okay,'" Kaminski said. However, deals outside wealth management suggest reality may be less rosy. A robotics and logistics deal Green Sail advised on last November, involving a top operator selling to Amazon and Walmart, commanded only about 8.5 times EBITDA.
Gent notes that reported median multiples of around 12 times EBITDA mask a wide dispersion. Green Sail has seen deals close anywhere from 7 to 18 times EBITDA, depending on the quality of the firm and representation. "That's a pretty wide range," Gent said, emphasizing the value of skilled advisors in negotiations.
Some major buyers may be sobering up. In the latest RIA M&A Deal Book Report by Devoe & Company, none of the consolidators surveyed expect valuations to rise over the next six months, a bearish shift from last year when 8% anticipated increases. Meanwhile, 18% now expect declines, up from 7%, and nearly three-quarters see a widening gap between seller expectations and buyer willingness to pay.
Two triggers could spark a correction. First, an aging advisor population has been delaying retirement sales because rising equity markets keep boosting business values. Once the bull run ends, Kaminski predicts a "massive supply influx" against fixed buyer demand, pushing prices down. Second, a public listing by a major consolidator could reset expectations. If an IPO values a firm below the roughly 25 times EBITDA assumption embedded in private valuations—compared to Amazon's current multiple of about 15 times—"every other multiple has to correct."
Gent describes the situation as a "house of cards," noting that PE firms often copy each other's strategies and underwrite growth assumptions of around 15% annually that depend on continued market climbs. "All it takes is for the market to have one bad year, and all of their financial models will collapse." Kaminski expects a slow decay rather than a sudden crash, with median multiples drifting from 11.5 to 10.5, then 10, over successive years—a trend only recognized in hindsight.
For RIA principals, the most urgent issue is deal structure. Most PE-backed transactions pay about 25% in equity, which remains illiquid for three to five years until the buyer has a liquidity event. Kaminski warns that sellers holding stock are effectively betting on future valuations. "If I'm holding stock when I sell, I would rather sell today, get the really high cash amount and still be able to sell my stock before multiples come way down." Gent adds that this "second bite of the apple" can be more significant than sellers realize, potentially equaling the initial cash payout.
