Despite persistent headlines about inflation and geopolitical tensions, the S&P 500 has delivered a roughly 10% total return through the first half of 2026. As advisors turn their attention to the summer months and the remainder of the year, several wealth managers offered their outlooks on where equities may head next and which sectors present the most compelling opportunities.
Tim Bartlett, chief investment officer at Unique Wealth, expects U.S. equities to remain volatile in the second half but supported by robust fundamentals and double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500. He sees the most attractive opportunities in public and private infrastructure, particularly companies tied to AI supply chains and the broader power buildout. Bartlett warns that the Federal Reserve remains in a difficult position with inflation still elevated and policy likely to stay data-dependent. “Any leadership change can create short-term uncertainty because markets prefer consistency, but we expect investors to adjust as the new chair’s approach becomes clearer,” he said. Tactically, Bartlett favors globally diversified portfolios with strategic overweights to Power, AI/Tech, and Infrastructure, adding that “we still view market weakness as an opportunity for long-term investors to add exposure to high-conviction themes.”
Mark Doehla, portfolio manager at Great Diamond Partners, notes that equity direction tends to parallel corporate earnings growth expectations, leading him to believe stocks have more room to run in the back half of 2026. Assuming corporate profit projections are attainable, he expects sectors leading profit expansion—like technology—to continue pulling up the broader market. However, Doehla describes his bullish conviction as “somewhat lukewarm,” citing inflationary pressure, geopolitical risks, and an already three-year double-digit stock return trend that gives him pause. “Trimming tech-heavy overweights while keenly monitoring fundamentals in economically broader-based sector baskets like consumer cyclicals, financials, and industrials are our primary focus,” he said. Doehla is currently overweight international equities and commodities while carefully monitoring domestic equity and fixed income volatility.
Doehla also cautions that market vulnerabilities—such as weaker real consumer incomes, higher debt refinancing rates, and corporate margin pressures—are not being fully appreciated by the market today. He worries about high crude oil prices, higher interest rates both domestically and abroad, and narrow equity participation when looking at stock indices behavior. “We would welcome a definitive pullback of 10% or more to help remove the fast money and reset investor expectations to more earnestly consider the impact of war, tariffs, and asset bubbles. Left unchecked for much longer, these areas we mention could very well be the catalysts that lead us to an uncontrollable, sizable, and prolonged drop in markets on a global scale,” Doehla said.
Nick Holuta, portfolio manager at Dynasty Financial Partners, remains constructive on U.S. equities but emphasizes that the story is not the index—it is the rotation underneath it. “Capital has moved out of mega-cap software and into the physical economy, AI infrastructure, and the broader 493, and we expect that to continue into the back half of the year. We continue to believe we are in the early innings of this transformational AI build out and believe that growth will continue to come from companies powering and supplying this new world,” Holuta said. He stressed that “the next 12 to 24 months will reward active management, manager selection in private markets, and security selection within sectors in a way they haven't been rewarded in years. That gap between top and bottom performers is already showing up in the data, even if allocations haven't caught up.”
Advisors looking to refine their approach during the summer lull may find value in reviewing operational strategies, as highlighted in a recent article on Wealth Managers Use Summer Lull to Refine Operations, Boost Client Readiness for Q4. Meanwhile, the surge in client demand for portfolios that can withstand persistent volatility is explored in Wealth Managers Report Surge in Client Demand for 'News-Proof' Portfolios Amid Persistent Volatility. For those tracking regulatory changes, the SEC's proposed semi-annual reporting rule is analyzed in SEC Proposes Semi-Annual Reporting: Advisors Weigh Impact on Research and Transparency.
