Confidence among U.S. chief executives climbed back above the neutral threshold in the third quarter of 2026, according to a survey released August 6 by The Conference Board and The Business Council. The Measure of CEO Confidence rose to 52 from 47 in the prior quarter, marking the first time the index has exceeded 50 since the first quarter, when it stood at 59. The survey, based on responses from 136 CEOs, was conducted July 13–27, 2026.
Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, attributed the improvement to easing oil prices and reduced geopolitical tensions, but described the mood as “cautious optimism” rather than a full recovery. The rebound suggests that the worst fears from earlier in the year may be fading, though executives remain wary of the road ahead.
Current conditions show marked turnaround
The improvement was most evident in how CEOs assessed present-day conditions. The share of executives who said the general economic environment was better than six months earlier rose to 23% from 15% in Q2, while those saying conditions had worsened fell sharply to 26% from 47%. For their own industries, 43% reported improved conditions over the past six months, up from 33%, and only 23% cited deterioration, down from 33%.
Such industry-level optimism can carry real implications for independent financial advisors and wealth managers, who track executive sentiment as a leading indicator of capital allocation and client portfolio positioning. The shift in CEO mood comes as financial planning professionals are increasingly called upon to help clients navigate a volatile macro environment. For a broader view of client sentiment, see the CFP Board's summer survey, which showed a rebound in client optimism despite inflation pressures.
Cyber and AI emerge as dominant business risks
Even as overall sentiment improved, executives flagged a shifting landscape of business risks. Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council, noted that cybersecurity remained the top concern, cited by 63% of respondents. Artificial intelligence and new technology displaced geopolitics as the second-highest risk, named by 58% of CEOs. Geopolitical concerns, while still significant, eased to 53% from 62% in Q2, and worries about energy supply fell to 25% from 34%.
The rise of AI-related risks is particularly relevant for advisors, as AI voice-cloning scams have recently targeted major hedge funds, underscoring the need for robust cybersecurity measures in client communications.
Hiring plans improve, but wage pressure remains
On the workforce side, 34% of CEOs planned to expand headcount over the coming months, up from 28% in Q2, while 28% anticipated reductions. The majority (61%) said they did not expect significant hiring difficulties. On compensation, 58% of executives planned to raise wages in the 3–3.9% annual range, a figure that will register with advisors helping clients plan for inflation-adjusted retirement income and household cash flow.
Capital expenditure intentions were largely stable, with 61% of CEOs reporting no change to their spending plans and 31% anticipating increases—a modest positive signal for equity investors and their advisors.
Forward outlook: cautious but improved
Looking six months ahead, 25% of executives expected general economic conditions to improve, up marginally from 24% in Q2, while the share expecting deterioration fell dramatically to 19% from 40%. The more pronounced optimism was industry-specific: 36% of CEOs anticipated improved conditions in their own sectors, compared with just 13% expecting decline.
The data lands at a moment when wealth management professionals are navigating a complex environment of moderating inflation, shifting rate expectations, and client anxiety about market direction. For advisors building financial plans around long-term growth assumptions, the question of whether executive sentiment translates into real investment activity over the second half of 2026 will be worth watching closely. As the Federal Reserve holds rates steady, as detailed in this analysis of the latest FOMC decision, the interplay between CEO confidence and monetary policy will be key.
