Global corporate and investment banking (CIB) revenue is on track to reach a record $1.1 trillion in 2026, according to a new report from Boston Consulting Group. The study, titled A Golden Window for Growth, projects the total revenue pool—including nonbank financial institutions—will expand to roughly $1.4 trillion by 2030, growing at about 5% annually. The findings, based on BCG Expand data and proprietary analysis, underscore a fundamental shift in where revenue originates and which players are capturing it.
Sponsor revenues have grown about 5.5% per year over the past two years, while hedge fund revenues have surged approximately 9% annually. In contrast, traditional corporate clients have seen only 1.7% growth. This divergence is prompting banks to realign their coverage models and pricing strategies, with direct implications for advisors who rely on institutional banking relationships for high-net-worth clients.
Private credit: the growth engine
Private-credit fund financing is the fastest-growing product area, with revenues compounding at roughly 15% annually from 2022 through 2025, per BCG. The firm expects this trajectory to continue as financial sponsors and hedge funds demand bespoke financing solutions that traditional bank balance sheets are less equipped to provide. As banks restructure around these clients, the depth and quality of services available to wealth management clients—particularly in the high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth segments—are likely to be reshaped. Advisors are already feeling pressure to incorporate private markets into client portfolios, a trend that the BCG data suggests has room to run.
Nonbanks close the gap
The share of CIB revenues held by nonbank financial institutions has grown nearly fivefold, from roughly 4% in 2013 to an estimated 19% by the end of 2026, with BCG projecting about 23% by 2030. Hedge funds and financial sponsors, the most aggressively courted clients, are accelerating this shift by demanding financing through market cycles, proprietary research, and technology-enabled service that smaller institutions struggle to match. Julian Hein, a BCG managing director and co-author of the report, emphasized that banks with centralized client coverage—rather than product silos—are best positioned to win. "Sponsors and hedge funds are raising the bar," Hein said. "They expect financing through the cycle, proprietary insight, and technology-enabled coverage, and they can tell a bank that has redesigned its workflows from one that has simply added new tools."
AI: freeing capacity, not eliminating jobs
The report also addresses the impact of artificial intelligence on bank workforces, a question with downstream relevance for advisors whose institutional counterparties are undergoing operational transformation. BCG estimates that up to 40% of current full-time-equivalent capacity in middle- and back-office functions could be freed by 2030, measured against today's job profiles. However, freed capacity does not necessarily mean net headcount reduction; much of it may be absorbed by new roles as banks redeploy staff toward higher-value, judgment-intensive work. The financial stakes are significant: by 2030, leading CIBs are on track to sustain a cost-to-income ratio of roughly 53% and a return on tangible equity of approximately 21%, compared with roughly 68% and 10% for laggards. That performance gap has direct consequences for the stability and quality of institutional banking partnerships that advisory firms rely on.
Geography: country-level engines
The report's regional breakdown underscores that growth will increasingly be determined at the country level rather than by regional averages. North America will remain the largest region, with roughly 46% of the revenue pool, growing about 4% annually to 2030. Asia-Pacific is expected to grow fastest, at approximately 5% per year, driven by Japan's rates normalization, an equity and debt capital markets boom in India, and Southeast Asia's emergence as a private capital and wealth management hub. Ingmar Brömstrup, BCG managing director and senior partner, framed the message plainly: "Growth is concentrating in particular clients and in particular markets. From the country-level engines in Asia-Pacific to the largest base in North America, banks that pair the right client coverage with the right markets can capture growth that regional averages hide."
For advisors, the report's findings reinforce the importance of monitoring institutional counterparties' strategic shifts. As nonbanks gain share and private credit expands, the competitive landscape for capital and services is evolving. The record alternatives sales at wirehouses and the push for private markets in 401(k)s are early indicators of this trend. Meanwhile, the AI investment boom and inflationary pressures could shape the broader economic environment in which these shifts unfold.
