For decades, Social Security has been viewed as a near-certain income stream for American retirees. But a growing number of older workers and retirees now question that assumption. According to the 2026 Social Security Confidence Survey from PlanGap, 69% of Americans aged 45 and older lack confidence that benefits will remain at current levels throughout their retirement. Only 30% expressed confidence in the program's future.
The findings arrive just weeks after the Social Security Board of Trustees reported that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance trust fund is projected to be depleted by 2032. At that point, incoming payroll tax revenue would cover only a portion of scheduled benefits unless Congress intervenes. The survey suggests many Americans expect lawmakers to address the shortfall through benefit reductions rather than revenue increases.
Sixty-eight percent of respondents said they believe Washington will resolve Social Security's funding challenge by raising the eligibility age or reducing benefits for some or all recipients. This expectation comes despite heavy reliance on the program: 83% of respondents said Social Security will play a major or moderate role in their retirement success, and 60% expect it to provide at least half of their retirement income.
“For six years, our survey has shown the same basic reality: Americans approaching retirement do not view Social Security uncertainty as an abstract policy issue,” David Duley, founder and CEO of PlanGap, said in a statement. “They see it as a direct threat to the retirement plans they have spent decades building.”
The survey also found that 68% of respondents are concerned a great deal or a lot that they may not receive their full benefits as promised. This year's edition highlighted an emerging worry: artificial intelligence. When asked to compare the stress of a potential 22% monthly benefit cut to other major life events, respondents most frequently selected losing a job to AI, cited by 18% of participants. That ranked ahead of the death of a loved one, a cancer diagnosis, and another global pandemic.
Overall, 80% of respondents said they feel frustrated, angry, scared, or nervous that potential benefit cuts could negatively affect their retirement plans. Only 11% said they remain hopeful the government will resolve the issue without reducing benefits.
Advisors may want to consider these findings when stress-testing client portfolios. As noted in a recent article on Advisors Urged to Stress-Test Plans as Social Security Trust Fund Depletion Accelerates to 2032, the accelerating timeline for trust fund depletion underscores the need for contingency planning. Meanwhile, the intersection of AI and retirement anxiety is a growing theme, as explored in McKinsey Partner Predicts AI Will Push Advisors Upmarket, Allianz CEO Warns of 'AI Socialism'.
For advisors working with small-business clients, the retirement landscape is also shifting. Edward Jones Adds JPMorgan, T. Rowe Price to Retirement Platform, Targets Small-Business 401(k) Market highlights new options for plan sponsors. And on the policy front, Warren Demands White House Clarify Social Security Retirement Age Plans as Trust Fund Depletion Accelerates shows the political debate intensifying.
